Monday, December 31, 2007

Fooled by Randomness quotes

I'm now half-way through reading "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It was a great read and really drives home some of the concepts that have been lingering at the back of my mind regarding luck, complexity that really can't be simplified into MBA-happy charts/2-by-2 tables and the counterintuitive nature of probability. The author says it much better, so I'd just reiterate a few lines from the book that struck a chord for me:

"...Einstein's remark that commonsense is nothing more than a collection of misconceptions gathered by age eighteen."

"People in most fields...do not have problems eliminating extreme values from their sample...a professor who computes the average of his students' grades removes the highest and lowest observations, which we call outliers...a weather forecaster does the same with extreme weather...an event, though rare, that brings large consequences cannot just be ignored."

"The frequency or probability of the loss, in and by itself, is totally irrelevant; it needs to be judged in connection with the magnitude of the outcome."

"Quite impressive poetry has been produced...with the aid of a computer (via Monte Carlo engine)"

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

viagra and alternatives Buy Viagra Online No Prescription is there a female viagra female use of viagra viagra lawyer columbus Buy Viagra Online No Prescription how to buy viagra does viagra really work buy viagra online uk viagra from india viagra benefits cheap viagra canada viagra soft tabs generic viagra cheap

Anonymous said...

alprazolam mg xanax drug prescribed - xanax effects memory

Anonymous said...

rt order cialis online , cialis cheap , cialis.com free offer , buy generic viagra online , viagra reviews , cheap viagra

Anonymous said...

s cialis pills , online cialis , cialis without prescription , viagra soft tabs , viagra without prescription , viagra without prescription

Anonymous said...

sdg tadalafil cialis , cheap cialis , cialis coupon , viagra dose , generic viagra online , cheap viagra

Anonymous said...

cd online cialis reviews , cialis tadalafil 20 mg , cialis 20 mg directions , generic female viagra , viagra tablets for sale , viagra prescription

Anonymous said...

eh cialis daily , cialis prescription canada , discount cialis , generic viagra buy , viagra no prescription , low price viagra

Anonymous said...

s cialis uk sales , cialis for sale in uk , cialis for sale in uk , buy viagra online cheap , online viagra prescription , non prescription viagra

Anonymous said...

ttg generic viagra , buy viagra cheap , cheap viagra , generic cialis , cialis online , cialis 20mg

Anonymous said...

sdg viagra buy , cheap viagra , generic viagra , cialis , cialis , price cialis

Anonymous said...

cd cialis
http://vtchiro.com

Anonymous said...

s viagra,viagra prices , cialis ,cialis prices
http://genericviagrarbs.com http://viagrapricesapf.com http://cialisonlinesya.com http://cialispriceschu.com

Anonymous said...

s viagra,viagra prices , cialis ,cialis prices
http://genericviagrarbs.com http://viagrapricesapf.com http://cialisonlinesya.com http://cialispriceschu.com

Anonymous said...

arfe viagra cheap viagra,viagra pills viagra pills, generic viagra cheap viagra,cialis cheap viagra
http://cheapviagrapillsesl.com#cheap viagra http://cheapviagrapillsvivt.com#viagra pills http://viagraonlinegenericth.com#generic viagra http://cheapcialisgenericsybf.com#cheap cialis

Anonymous said...

Use children's and young people's existing knowledge, experience and perceptions of drug issues as a starting point. generic viagra laws viagra,viagra 100 mg effet generic viagra cost, price comparison for cialis viagra pills,what do cialis pills do how long before viagra pills expire
http://genericviagrapillstzj.com#viagra online consultation http://viagraonline100mgxhy.com#how do i get viagra online http://cialispricecheapsfc.com#buy cheap cialis uk http://cialispillscheapwr.com#cialis and sleeping pills

Anonymous said...

Do pill counts 23.1 generic cialis cialis,cialis online cialis online, viagra cialis,cialis online generic cialis
http://genericcialisonlinevsdk.com#cialis http://cialisonlinepricesrj.com#cialis http://cheapviagrapillsesf.com#viagra http://genericcialisonlinevsdt.com#cialis online

Anonymous said...

Do pill counts 23.1 generic cialis cialis,cialis online cialis online, viagra cialis,cialis online generic cialis
http://genericcialisonlinevsdk.com#cialis http://cialisonlinepricesrj.com#cialis http://cheapviagrapillsesf.com#viagra http://genericcialisonlinevsdt.com#cialis online

Anonymous said...

sdg cialis price cialis price,generic viagra cialis price, buy viagra cialis online,viagra cialis
http://cialisonlinepricesrg.com#viagra http://viagraonlinegenerictsf.com#viagra online http://buyviagraonlinewrv.com#buy viagra http://genericviagrapricevth.com#generic viagra

Anonymous said...

sdg cialis price cialis price,generic viagra cialis price, buy viagra cialis online,viagra cialis
http://cialisonlinepricesrg.com#viagra http://viagraonlinegenerictsf.com#viagra online http://buyviagraonlinewrv.com#buy viagra http://genericviagrapricevth.com#generic viagra

Anonymous said...

sdg cialis price cialis price,generic viagra cialis price, buy viagra cialis online,viagra cialis
http://cialisonlinepricesrg.com#viagra http://viagraonlinegenerictsf.com#viagra online http://buyviagraonlinewrv.com#buy viagra http://genericviagrapricevth.com#generic viagra